Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.72 – 113.68

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.3 ±11.2

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 58.65Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 1.7Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 83.37Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.7 ±12.2

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 10.82Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 57Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 45.86Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4, 5669, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4, 5669, 4322

Auto

8.4 6%

Teleop

80.4 57%

Endgame

52.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 867, 5137, 980

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 867, 5137, 980

Auto

12.8 12%

Teleop

71.8 68%

Endgame

20.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.7pts

Blue projected score113.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30
Score range: 91–167
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.3Season APEX280.7

8.4Auto12.8

80.4Teleop71.8

52.2Endgame20.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	8
teleop	79	62
endgame	13	40
foul	0	0
total	123	110

Result

Final score

123 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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