Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.86 – 0

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.5 ±14.3

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 14.96Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1759Potatoes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 26.09Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 164.81Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.9 ±13.9

9505Vyserions

Season APEX 54.4Event APEX -28.4Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 3.84Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 7.86Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6220, 1759, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6220, 1759, 9408

Auto

29.1 15%

Teleop

131.5 70%

Endgame

27.5 15%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9505, 6000, 4501

/ 100 compat

Projected

-16.7 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9505, 6000, 4501

Auto

8.6 0%

Teleop

-18.8 90%

Endgame

-10.7 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.9pts

Blue projected score-16.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 205.9
Score range: -23–229
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.5Season APEX165.9

29.1Auto8.6

131.5Teleop-18.8

27.5Endgame-10.7

80Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	5
teleop	133	14
endgame	45	6
foul	15	0
total	273	25

Result

Final score

273 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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