Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.45 – 69.66

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±12.2

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 38.71Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 4.39Rank 17Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 95

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX -9.65Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.6 ±13.9

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 13.92Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 31.07Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 24.67Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3408, 11096, 1515

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3408, 11096, 1515

Auto

4.7 15%

Teleop

14.3 45%

Endgame

12.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3759, 1661, 597

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3759, 1661, 597

Auto

15.0 21%

Teleop

36.8 52%

Endgame

19.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.5pts

Blue projected score69.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.2
Score range: 10–93
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.9Season APEX214.6

4.7Auto15

14.3Teleop36.8

12.9Endgame19.1

76Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	30
teleop	50	31
endgame	11	23
foul	0	0
total	83	84

Result

Final score

83 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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