Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.19 – 143.72

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

135 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 36 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.9 ±12.2

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 24.89Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 89.05Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 4.25Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±12.4

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 30.85Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 91.02Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 21.85Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5089, 2584, 6904

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5089, 2584, 6904

Auto

34.6 28%

Teleop

72.3 59%

Endgame

15.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1836, 4201, 9696

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1836, 4201, 9696

Auto

31.5 21%

Teleop

78.1 53%

Endgame

38.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.2pts

Blue projected score143.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.5
Score range: 95–167
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.9Season APEX365.5

34.6Auto31.5

72.3Teleop78.1

15.8Endgame38.6

39Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	54
teleop	61	120
endgame	35	20
foul	0	5
total	135	199

Result

Final score

135 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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