Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.61 – 86.26

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.5 ±9.8

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 25.39Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 52.3Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 61.92Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.6 ±13.9

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 44.97Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 2.47Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 38.82Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4415, 4123, 294

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4415, 4123, 294

Auto

24.7 19%

Teleop

76.6 60%

Endgame

25.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1159, 4964, 7230

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1159, 4964, 7230

Auto

29.2 35%

Teleop

38.1 46%

Endgame

15.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.6pts

Blue projected score86.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.4
Score range: 64–162
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.5Season APEX205.6

24.7Auto29.2

76.6Teleop38.1

25.7Endgame15.3

26Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	34
teleop	127	26
endgame	80	21
foul	0	0
total	236	81

Result

Final score

236 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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