Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.7 – 80.78

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.3 ±12.8

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 11.51Rank 26Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 5.2Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 3.99Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.5 ±12.2

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 5.41Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 42Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 33.37Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6072, 5835, 4999

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6072, 5835, 4999

Auto

15.6 71%

Teleop

-6.8 0%

Endgame

13.1 60%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8898, 5124, 7042

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8898, 5124, 7042

Auto

5.4 7%

Teleop

31.9 42%

Endgame

37.8 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.7pts

Blue projected score80.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.1
Score range: -2–104
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 125.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.3Season APEX200.5

15.6Auto5.4

-6.8Teleop31.9

13.1Endgame37.8

59Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	32	15
endgame	28	15
foul	0	0
total	79	42

Result

Final score

79 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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