Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.77 – 83.09

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281 ±12.2

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 71.35Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 42.16Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 4.26Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.7 ±12.8

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 20.25Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 37.56Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 25.28Rank 26Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5137, 5089, 6000

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5137, 5089, 6000

Auto

22.9 22%

Teleop

59.9 56%

Endgame

23.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7042, 7230, 6072

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7042, 7230, 6072

Auto

28.5 36%

Teleop

29.0 37%

Endgame

21.1 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.8pts

Blue projected score83.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.7
Score range: 56–145
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281Season APEX227.7

22.9Auto28.5

59.9Teleop29

23.6Endgame21.1

45Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	48
teleop	41	16
endgame	22	24
foul	0	0
total	81	88

Result

Final score

81 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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