Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.01 – 120.7

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±13.9

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 20.56Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 21.36Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 1.09Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361 ±12.4

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 96.26Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 11.48Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 12.96Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9696, 597, 5669

/ 100 compat

Projected

43 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9696, 597, 5669

Auto

15.8 33%

Teleop

20.3 42%

Endgame

11.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 6000, 6904

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4201, 6000, 6904

Auto

33.4 27%

Teleop

59.6 48%

Endgame

31.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43pts

Blue projected score120.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.7
Score range: 20–144
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227Season APEX361

15.8Auto33.4

20.3Teleop59.6

11.9Endgame31.1

28Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	35	40
endgame	29	22
foul	0	0
total	78	85

Result

Final score

78 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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