Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.22 – 221.45

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.7 ±10.5

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 55.26Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 25.57Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 174.39Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375 ±11.7

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 27.66Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 141.37Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 52.42Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 980, 4415, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 980, 4415, 9408

Auto

39.6 16%

Teleop

156.0 63%

Endgame

54.0 22%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5089, 687, 1159

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5089, 687, 1159

Auto

46.2 21%

Teleop

118.0 54%

Endgame

56.2 25%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score255.2pts

Blue projected score221.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.8
Score range: 198–278
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.7Season APEX375

39.6Auto46.2

156Teleop118

54Endgame56.2

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	57
teleop	65	80
endgame	47	27
foul	60	5
total	210	169

Result

Final score

210 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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