Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.45 – 99.25

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.1 ±12.8

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 32.43Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 7.32Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 28.7Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.5 ±12.2

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 32.16Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 73.28Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX -6.19Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1661, 5835, 7042

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1661, 5835, 7042

Auto

16.6 24%

Teleop

30.2 44%

Endgame

22.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5124, 2584, 4964

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5124, 2584, 4964

Auto

19.4 22%

Teleop

58.4 66%

Endgame

11.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.5pts

Blue projected score99.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.8
Score range: 45–122
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 125.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.1Season APEX268.5

16.6Auto19.4

30.2Teleop58.4

22.3Endgame11.1

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	33
teleop	30	83
endgame	18	45
foul	0	0
total	66	161

Result

Final score

66 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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