Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.4 – 123.07

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±12.8

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX -8.98Rank 17Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 95

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 40.86Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -2.48Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.6 ±11.7

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 63.72Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 12.36Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 46.99Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11096, 4123, 4501

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11096, 4123, 4501

Auto

12.4 48%

Teleop

6.3 24%

Endgame

7.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 294, 8898, 4470

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 294, 8898, 4470

Auto

21.2 17%

Teleop

67.1 54%

Endgame

34.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.4pts

Blue projected score123.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.7
Score range: 6–146
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.9Season APEX350.6

12.4Auto21.2

6.3Teleop67.1

7.4Endgame34.9

46Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	17
teleop	100	52
endgame	14	19
foul	0	5
total	141	93

Result

Final score

141 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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