Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.3 – 89.48

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.3 ±12.4

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 30.23Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 107.07Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 58Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.2 ±12.2

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 27.32Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9505Vyserions

Season APEX 54.4Event APEX -17.49Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 79.65Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 597, 4201, 1159

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 597, 4201, 1159

Auto

31.1 16%

Teleop

118.8 61%

Endgame

43.3 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5089, 9505, 2710

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5089, 9505, 2710

Auto

18.3 19%

Teleop

55.1 56%

Endgame

25.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.3pts

Blue projected score89.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.8
Score range: 67–217
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 123.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.3Season APEX233.2

31.1Auto18.3

118.8Teleop55.1

43.3Endgame25.5

8Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	1
teleop	43	78
endgame	62	1
foul	0	0
total	152	80

Result

Final score

152 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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