Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.25 – 86.76

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.2 ±12.8

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX -3.91Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 28.92Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 29.24Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222 ±13.3

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 14.48Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 56.96Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 15.32Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4964, 4415, 9696

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4964, 4415, 9696

Auto

3.8 7%

Teleop

34.6 63%

Endgame

16.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6000, 980, 5835

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6000, 980, 5835

Auto

14.8 16%

Teleop

54.7 60%

Endgame

21.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.3pts

Blue projected score86.8pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.5
Score range: 31–110
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 125.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.2Season APEX222

3.8Auto14.8

34.6Teleop54.7

16.4Endgame21

43Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	16	45
endgame	22	0
foul	0	0
total	51	63

Result

Final score

51 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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