Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.71 – 119.97

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.9 ±15.6

1759Potatoes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 28.54Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 31.87Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 6.3Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387 ±12.4

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 98.86Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 5.14Rank 17Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 95

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 15.97Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1759, 1197, 5669

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1759, 1197, 5669

Auto

30.1 45%

Teleop

29.9 45%

Endgame

6.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 11096, 4964

/ 100 compat

Projected

120 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4201, 11096, 4964

Auto

23.7 21%

Teleop

64.0 56%

Endgame

26.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.7pts

Blue projected score120pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.3
Score range: 40–147
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.9Season APEX387

30.1Auto23.7

29.9Teleop64

6.9Endgame26.4

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	7
teleop	16	47
endgame	0	33
foul	0	0
total	42	87

Result

Final score

42 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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