Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.54 – 166.28

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.5 ±11.2

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 56.33Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -8.03Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 33.24Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.1 ±12.4

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX -1.61Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 166.44Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 1.45Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 294, 4501, 7042

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 294, 4501, 7042

Auto

14.9 17%

Teleop

34.5 40%

Endgame

36.6 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3759, 9408, 5669

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3759, 9408, 5669

Auto

29.6 18%

Teleop

105.6 64%

Endgame

31.0 19%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.5pts

Blue projected score166.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.7
Score range: 60–188
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.5Season APEX420.1

14.9Auto29.6

34.5Teleop105.6

36.6Endgame31

0Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	55
teleop	41	115
endgame	30	48
foul	15	15
total	117	233

Result

Final score

117 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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