Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.53 – 221.73

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.4 ±15.6

1759Potatoes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 17.58Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 66.08Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 11.87Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.8 ±11.7

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 50.59Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 139.3Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 31.84Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1759, 5137, 8898

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1759, 5137, 8898

Auto

9.1 10%

Teleop

69.3 75%

Endgame

14.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1836, 687, 5124

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1836, 687, 5124

Auto

45.9 22%

Teleop

103.7 49%

Endgame

62.0 29%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.5pts

Blue projected score221.7pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.2
Score range: 74–244
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.4Season APEX358.8

9.1Auto45.9

69.3Teleop103.7

14.2Endgame62

43Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	39
teleop	50	138
endgame	32	32
foul	5	5
total	114	214

Result

Final score

114 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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