Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.59 – 96.29

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 139

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.1 ±15.3

1759Potatoes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -2Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX -7.47Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 96.06Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333 ±11.7

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 35.08Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 1.77Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 59.44Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1759, 3759, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1759, 3759, 4201

Auto

14.6 18%

Teleop

36.0 44%

Endgame

30.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4415, 6904, 5137

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4415, 6904, 5137

Auto

17.8 18%

Teleop

60.9 61%

Endgame

20.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.6pts

Blue projected score96.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.7
Score range: 66–117
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.1Season APEX333

14.6Auto17.8

36Teleop60.9

30.6Endgame20.9

145Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	31
teleop	94	73
endgame	7	20
foul	0	15
total	146	139

Result

Final score

146 – 139

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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