Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.02 – 53.74

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.4 ±13.9

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 74.75Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 31.9Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 23.37Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.8 ±11.7

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 10.55Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 0.86Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 42.33Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1836, 5857, 5835

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1836, 5857, 5835

Auto

36.7 28%

Teleop

61.6 47%

Endgame

33.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1197, 4964, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1197, 4964, 4123

Auto

17.9 29%

Teleop

41.5 67%

Endgame

2.5 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130pts

Blue projected score53.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.3
Score range: 32–152
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.4Season APEX306.8

36.7Auto17.9

61.6Teleop41.5

33.3Endgame2.5

8Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	23
teleop	17	37
endgame	15	8
foul	0	0
total	48	68

Result

Final score

48 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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