Qualification · Qualification 31
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
107.58 – 26.7
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
63 – 82
Prediction missed · off by 49.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.1 ±12.2
Season APEX 30Event APEX 27.15Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 49.45Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 30.98Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128 ±13.9
Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 5.03Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 21.02Rank 26Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 0.65Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 867, 5089, 6220
51
/ 100 compatProjected
107.6 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 867, 5089, 6220
Auto
16.2 16%
Teleop
69.5 68%
Endgame
16.8 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8898, 6072, 1661
14
/ 100 compatProjected
26.7 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 8898, 6072, 1661
Auto
8.2 27%
Teleop
3.3 11%
Endgame
18.4 62%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.86
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score107.6pts
Blue projected score26.7pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 80.9
- Score range
- 5–130
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
222.1Season APEX128
16.2Auto8.2
69.5Teleop3.3
16.8Endgame18.4
21Consistency50
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 6 | 14 |
| teleop | 47 | 41 |
| endgame | 10 | 27 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 63 | 82 |
Result
Final score
63 – 82
Prediction missed · off by 49.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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