Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112 – 239.96

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 104 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.5 ±12.8

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 14.83Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 43.37Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 53.8Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482.1 ±10.5

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 65.91Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 33.58Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 140.47Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5669, 7230, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5669, 7230, 3408

Auto

32.6 29%

Teleop

63.6 56%

Endgame

17.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2584, 4470, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

240 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2584, 4470, 9408

Auto

44.4 19%

Teleop

139.2 59%

Endgame

53.0 22%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score240pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128
Score range: 91–261
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.5Season APEX482.1

32.6Auto44.4

63.6Teleop139.2

17Endgame53

143Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	88
teleop	16	254
endgame	11	61
foul	15	0
total	67	403

Result

Final score

67 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 104 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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