Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.51 – 200.18

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 111.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.1 ±11.2

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 84.96Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -9.85Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 80.4Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.5 ±11.7

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 177.98Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 21.91Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 0.29Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4123, 8898, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4123, 8898, 4322

Auto

16.5 11%

Teleop

86.2 57%

Endgame

47.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9408, 597, 1515

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9408, 597, 1515

Auto

39.7 20%

Teleop

107.7 55%

Endgame

47.5 24%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.5pts

Blue projected score200.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.7
Score range: 129–227
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.1Season APEX470.5

16.5Auto39.7

86.2Teleop107.7

47.9Endgame47.5

26Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	6
teleop	53	43
endgame	16	14
foul	0	0
total	69	63

Result

Final score

69 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 111.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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