Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.94 – 64.83

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

137 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.9 ±11.2

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 134.16Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX -0.78Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX -16.44Rank 17Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.3 ±11.7

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 68.39Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 16.91Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -20.47Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 687, 4999, 11096

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 687, 4999, 11096

Auto

45.8 38%

Teleop

54.7 45%

Endgame

20.1 17%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4322, 5124, 4501

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 5124, 4501

Auto

11.3 25%

Teleop

16.3 36%

Endgame

18.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.9pts

Blue projected score64.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.1
Score range: 44–138
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.9Season APEX335.3

45.8Auto11.3

54.7Teleop16.3

20.1Endgame18.2

36Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	8
teleop	47	61
endgame	70	58
foul	0	10
total	137	137

Result

Final score

137 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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