Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.66 – 37.85

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.3 ±11.7

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 42.05Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 17.63Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 35.98Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.5 ±15.6

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 2.8Rank 26Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 50.23Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1759Potatoes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -15.18Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4123, 1661, 6220

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4123, 1661, 6220

Auto

1.5 2%

Teleop

72.4 94%

Endgame

3.2 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6072, 2710, 1759

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6072, 2710, 1759

Auto

21.0 57%

Teleop

11.5 31%

Endgame

4.5 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.7pts

Blue projected score37.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.8
Score range: 16–118
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.3Season APEX214.5

1.5Auto21

72.4Teleop11.5

3.2Endgame4.5

40Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	18
teleop	22	65
endgame	25	16
foul	0	0
total	59	99

Result

Final score

59 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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