Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.75 – 146.89

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 117.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±12.4

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 85.45Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX -5.98Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -21.72Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.9 ±11.7

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 70.98Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 6.98Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 68.93Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9408, 867, 8898

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9408, 867, 8898

Auto

13.3 21%

Teleop

51.9 82%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2584, 9696, 5137

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2584, 9696, 5137

Auto

14.1 10%

Teleop

85.1 62%

Endgame

37.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.8pts

Blue projected score146.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.1
Score range: 37–168
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 440 vs event baseline 118.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.2Season APEX327.9

13.3Auto14.1

51.9Teleop85.1

-1.9Endgame37.6

88Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	27
teleop	183	117
endgame	86	15
foul	0	0
total	281	159

Result

Final score

281 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 117.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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