Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.24 – 88.81

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 96.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.7 ±9.9

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 111.14Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 49.84Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 3.26Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.8 ±12.8

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 25.03Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX -7.97Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 71.75Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 687, 4322, 4470

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 687, 4322, 4470

Auto

26.5 16%

Teleop

104.6 64%

Endgame

32.5 20%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4964, 6000, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4964, 6000, 3408

Auto

9.6 10%

Teleop

59.7 63%

Endgame

26.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.2pts

Blue projected score88.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.4
Score range: 68–185
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.7Season APEX259.8

26.5Auto9.6

104.6Teleop59.7

32.5Endgame26

119Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	13
teleop	143	10
endgame	100	8
foul	0	0
total	300	31

Result

Final score

300 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 96.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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