Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
28.44 – 146.23
19%81%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
184 – 69
Prediction missed · off by 116.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 14.74Rank 4Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 146.5Event APEX -3.3Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 17Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.3 ±14.7
Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 65.05Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 94.05Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
1759Potatoes
Provisional
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -12.87Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4123, 4, 1836
22
/ 100 compatProjected
28.4 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4123, 4, 1836
Auto
-6.7 0%
Teleop
31.2 79%
Endgame
14.9 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4415, 7042, 1759
79
/ 100 compatProjected
146.2 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4415, 7042, 1759
Auto
19.5 15%
Teleop
69.7 54%
Endgame
40.9 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score28.4pts
Blue projected score146.2pts
Red win probability19%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -117.8
- Score range
- 8–166
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
355.9Season APEX330.3
-6.7Auto19.5
31.2Teleop69.7
14.9Endgame40.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 27 | 22 |
| teleop | 124 | 26 |
| endgame | 33 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 184 | 69 |
Result
Final score
184 – 69
Prediction missed · off by 116.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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