Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29 – 147.3

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.9 ±12.4

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 26.9Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX -15.03Rank 26Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 17.13Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.7 ±12.8

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 61.46Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 40.91Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 44.93Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 294, 6072, 1159

/ 100 compat

Projected

29 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 294, 6072, 1159

Auto

8.3 100%

Teleop

-7.3 0%

Endgame

4.9 83%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5137, 5857, 1661

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5137, 5857, 1661

Auto

19.8 14%

Teleop

90.5 63%

Endgame

33.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29pts

Blue projected score147.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.3
Score range: 8–168
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 114.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.9Season APEX277.7

8.3Auto19.8

-7.3Teleop90.5

4.9Endgame33.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	23
teleop	59	56
endgame	24	25
foul	0	0
total	101	104

Result

Final score

101 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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