Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.6 – 40.6

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 104.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.6 ±10.5

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 158.19Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 33.81Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 60.6Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214 ±12.8

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -9.84Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -24.07Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 74.51Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3476, 980, 2710

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3476, 980, 2710

Auto

42.4 18%

Teleop

141.1 60%

Endgame

50.0 21%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8898, 4501, 2584

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8898, 4501, 2584

Auto

11.6 30%

Teleop

31.2 80%

Endgame

-3.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score252.6pts

Blue projected score40.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 212
Score range: 22–272
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 503 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.6Season APEX214

42.4Auto11.6

141.1Teleop31.2

50Endgame-3.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	28
teleop	272	20
endgame	82	22
foul	0	5
total	428	75

Result

Final score

428 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 104.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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