Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.43 – 50.28

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 86.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.1 ±11.2

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX -26.85Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 77.42Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 40.86Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.6 ±12.8

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX -7.62Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 53.34Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 4.56Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5835, 687, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5835, 687, 3408

Auto

19.7 20%

Teleop

63.8 64%

Endgame

15.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6000, 6220, 5669

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6000, 6220, 5669

Auto

6.1 19%

Teleop

21.9 67%

Endgame

4.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.4pts

Blue projected score50.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.2
Score range: 31–110
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 107.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.1Season APEX249.6

19.7Auto6.1

63.8Teleop21.9

15.9Endgame4.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	6
teleop	145	26
endgame	59	9
foul	0	5
total	261	46

Result

Final score

261 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 86.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree