Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
84.57 – 54.3
59%41%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
26 – 38
Prediction missed · off by 37.4 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.1 ±13.9
Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 19.43Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 32Rank 26Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 54.4Event APEX 33.14Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±13.9
Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 13.73Rank 17Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 21.14Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 19.43Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9696, 6072, 9505
60
/ 100 compatProjected
84.6 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 9696, 6072, 9505
Auto
29.7 36%
Teleop
29.0 35%
Endgame
24.7 30%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 26%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11096, 1836, 3759
49
/ 100 compatProjected
54.3 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 11096, 1836, 3759
Auto
10.9 21%
Teleop
22.2 43%
Endgame
18.4 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 26%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.25
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score84.6pts
Blue projected score54.3pts
Red win probability59%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 26%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 30.3
- Score range
- 36–103
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
138.1Season APEX177.5
29.7Auto10.9
29Teleop22.2
24.7Endgame18.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 9 | 17 |
| teleop | 6 | 13 |
| endgame | 11 | 8 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 26 | 38 |
Result
Final score
26 – 38
Prediction missed · off by 37.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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