Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.04 – 145.43

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.8 ±12.8

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 6.56Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -12.78Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 54.26Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.8 ±11.7

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 25.14Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 26.29Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 94Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5669, 4501, 2710

/ 100 compat

Projected

48 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5669, 4501, 2710

Auto

26.5 62%

Teleop

14.5 34%

Endgame

2.0 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7230, 4, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7230, 4, 4415

Auto

38.0 27%

Teleop

62.6 45%

Endgame

39.1 28%

Strengths

· 4415 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48pts

Blue projected score145.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.4
Score range: 30–163
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 100.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.8Season APEX356.8

26.5Auto38

14.5Teleop62.6

2Endgame39.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	13
teleop	41	54
endgame	15	15
foul	0	0
total	66	82

Result

Final score

66 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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