Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.67 – 41.27

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 84 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±12.2

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -4.47Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 12Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 23.14Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589.2 ±9.9

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 5.2Rank 6Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 12.93Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 23.14Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4470, 1197, 6000

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4470, 1197, 6000

Auto

16.3 53%

Teleop

10.7 35%

Endgame

3.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4322, 294, 5089

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 294, 5089

Auto

9.5 25%

Teleop

19.2 50%

Endgame

9.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.7pts

Blue projected score41.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.6
Score range: 13–59
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 97.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.1Season APEX589.2

16.3Auto9.5

10.7Teleop19.2

3.6Endgame9.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	34	115
endgame	9	51
foul	0	0
total	62	178

Result

Final score

62 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 84 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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