Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.96 – 103.19

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.6 ±11.2

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 64.83Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 5.91Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 130.22Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.1 ±12.4

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 0.78Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 20.6Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 81.81Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2710, 867, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

201 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2710, 867, 687

Auto

30.1 15%

Teleop

130.9 65%

Endgame

41.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6904, 5835, 294

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6904, 5835, 294

Auto

19.8 19%

Teleop

58.0 54%

Endgame

29.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201pts

Blue projected score103.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.8
Score range: 76–228
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 149.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.6Season APEX396.1

30.1Auto19.8

130.9Teleop58

41.6Endgame29

0Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	13
teleop	119	3
endgame	31	9
foul	0	0
total	196	25

Result

Final score

196 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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