Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

459.05 – 255.87

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

493 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 745.3 ±9.3

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 254.36Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 23.42Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 181.27Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.3 ±9.3

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 23.48Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 131.6Rank 5Record 8-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 100.79Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3476, 7042, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3476, 7042, 9408

Auto

82.2 18%

Teleop

267.3 59%

Endgame

100.6 22%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4999, 687, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 687, 4201

Auto

48.6 20%

Teleop

131.7 54%

Endgame

62.6 26%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score459.1pts

Blue projected score255.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.2
Score range: 230–485
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 719 vs event baseline 145.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

745.3Season APEX578.3

82.2Auto48.6

267.3Teleop131.7

100.6Endgame62.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	69
teleop	265	114
endgame	121	38
foul	0	5
total	493	226

Result

Final score

493 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Match videos

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