Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.93 – 133.02

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

381 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 83.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.1 ±9.9

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 17.98Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 157.66Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 54.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±11

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 58.62Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX -3.05Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 77.45Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7413, 604, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7413, 604, 971

Auto

45.7 20%

Teleop

113.0 50%

Endgame

67.8 30%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8793, 2473, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

133 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8793, 2473, 7419

Auto

22.0 18%

Teleop

73.1 58%

Endgame

30.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score229.9pts

Blue projected score133pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.9
Score range: 102–261
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 174.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.1Season APEX360

45.7Auto22

113Teleop73.1

67.8Endgame30.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	29
teleop	210	30
endgame	81	38
foul	25	20
total	381	117

Result

Final score

381 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 83.5 pts

Match videos

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