Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

599.43 – 125.67

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

606 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 860.1 ±9.9

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 8.74Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 332.85Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 257.84Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.1 ±11.6

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 61.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 17.57Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 46.29Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5760, 1678, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

599.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5760, 1678, 9470

Auto

122.6 21%

Teleop

342.6 58%

Endgame

130.5 22%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1857, 1452, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1857, 1452, 3598

Auto

21.5 18%

Teleop

54.4 46%

Endgame

42.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score599.4pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 473.8
Score range: 95–630
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 724 vs event baseline 171.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

860.1Season APEX293.1

122.6Auto21.5

342.6Teleop54.4

130.5Endgame42.3

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	138	30
teleop	292	43
endgame	171	30
foul	5	15
total	606	118

Result

Final score

606 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 pts

Match videos

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