Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.25 – 86.33

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 22.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.4 ±11.6

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 35.66Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 36.03Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 31.56Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.6 ±11.6

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 37.75Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 24.23Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 24.35Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3257, 4171, 5924

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3257, 4171, 5924

Auto

14.3 15%

Teleop

50.2 52%

Endgame

31.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6305, 1458, 852

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6305, 1458, 852

Auto

20.1 25%

Teleop

37.1 45%

Endgame

24.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.3pts

Blue projected score86.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.9
Score range: 55–134
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 172.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.4Season APEX226.6

14.3Auto20.1

50.2Teleop37.1

31.7Endgame24.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	27
teleop	50	36
endgame	21	25
foul	15	25
total	121	113

Result

Final score

121 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 22.2 pts

Match videos

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