Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.68 – 102.76

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

355 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 85.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.1 ±9.9

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 9.14Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 149.43Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 46.11Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.4 ±11.6

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 34.68Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 36.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 31.34Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7413, 604, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7413, 604, 971

Auto

44.0 22%

Teleop

101.3 51%

Endgame

55.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3257, 4171, 5924

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3257, 4171, 5924

Auto

13.9 15%

Teleop

46.5 50%

Endgame

32.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.7pts

Blue projected score102.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.9
Score range: 72–236
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 172.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.1Season APEX262.4

44Auto13.9

101.3Teleop46.5

55.2Endgame32

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	20
teleop	163	68
endgame	120	35
foul	10	0
total	355	123

Result

Final score

355 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 85.3 pts

Match videos

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