Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

595.14 – 52.42

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

651 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 65.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 872.1 ±9.3

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 6.86Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 331.33Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 256.95Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.3 ±11

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 9.44Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 26.47Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 16.51Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7607, 1678, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

595.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 1678, 9470

Auto

122.5 21%

Teleop

332.0 56%

Endgame

133.3 23%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10059, 4990, 670

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10059, 4990, 670

Auto

10.1 20%

Teleop

35.1 69%

Endgame

5.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score595.1pts

Blue projected score52.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 542.7
Score range: 22–625
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 779 vs event baseline 169.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

872.1Season APEX297.3

122.5Auto10.1

332Teleop35.1

133.3Endgame5.5

56Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	17
teleop	382	57
endgame	134	24
foul	10	30
total	651	128

Result

Final score

651 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 65.7 pts

Match videos

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