Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.33 – 110.74

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 100.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±11

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 59.64Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX -1.82Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 80.51Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.4 ±11.6

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 33.9Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 37.59Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 39.25Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8793, 2473, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8793, 2473, 7419

Auto

25.6 20%

Teleop

68.8 54%

Endgame

33.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5924, 4171, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5924, 4171, 3257

Auto

17.7 19%

Teleop

47.3 50%

Endgame

29.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.3pts

Blue projected score110.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.6
Score range: 79–170
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 180.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360Season APEX262.4

25.6Auto17.7

68.8Teleop47.3

33.9Endgame29.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	21
teleop	145	2
endgame	63	18
foul	15	0
total	270	41

Result

Final score

270 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 100.7 pts

Match videos

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