Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.76 – 90.86

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.1 ±11.6

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 5.29Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 30.98Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 12.49Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 608 ±10.5

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 30.98Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 62.47Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX -2.59Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4171, 670, 5924

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4171, 670, 5924

Auto

7.7 16%

Teleop

26.7 55%

Endgame

14.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3045, 7419, 9584

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3045, 7419, 9584

Auto

26.9 27%

Teleop

69.1 70%

Endgame

2.9 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.8pts

Blue projected score90.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.1
Score range: 22–118
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.1Season APEX608

7.7Auto26.9

26.7Teleop69.1

14Endgame2.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	10
teleop	10	87
endgame	15	41
foul	0	0
total	34	138

Result

Final score

34 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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