Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.6 – 83.42

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 153 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.1 ±11.1

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 78.36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 40.57Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX -0.33Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.1 ±11.1

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 128.62Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -15.99Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX -29.21Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1857, 604, 852

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1857, 604, 852

Auto

27.9 23%

Teleop

67.2 55%

Endgame

28.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1678, 1452, 7413

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1678, 1452, 7413

Auto

28.2 36%

Teleop

40.0 51%

Endgame

10.4 13%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.6pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.2
Score range: 59–143
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 508 vs event baseline 132.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.1Season APEX466.1

27.9Auto28.2

67.2Teleop40

28.1Endgame10.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	59
teleop	80	99
endgame	82	111
foul	20	35
total	204	304

Result

Final score

204 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 153 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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