Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.93 – 102.53

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 733 ±9.3

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 28.43Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 72.5Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 253Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.1 ±12.1

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 30.8Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 55.9Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 15.83Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4990, 971, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 971, 9470

Auto

69.1 20%

Teleop

191.4 56%

Endgame

82.7 24%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5924, 9584, 10252

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5924, 9584, 10252

Auto

15.0 18%

Teleop

45.2 53%

Endgame

24.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score353.9pts

Blue projected score102.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 251.4
Score range: 69–388
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

733Season APEX169.1

69.1Auto15

191.4Teleop45.2

82.7Endgame24.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	12
teleop	195	64
endgame	107	29
foul	0	0
total	373	105

Result

Final score

373 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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