Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

49.93 – 40.49

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.7 ±10.4

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 19.63Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 0.77Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 29.53Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.1 ±11.6

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX -13.12Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 48.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 5.54Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4990, 7607, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 7607, 3257

Auto

5.9 14%

Teleop

24.1 58%

Endgame

11.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2473, 8793, 7413

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2473, 8793, 7413

Auto

4.0 12%

Teleop

19.2 55%

Endgame

11.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.9pts

Blue projected score40.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.4
Score range: 9–81
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 169.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.7Season APEX206.1

5.9Auto4

24.1Teleop19.2

11.8Endgame11.4

62Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	20
teleop	71	43
endgame	54	35
foul	0	20
total	139	118

Result

Final score

139 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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