Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.73 – 363.66

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.8 ±12.1

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 58.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 30.34Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 19.61Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 834.4 ±9.3

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 46.53Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 261.17Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 55.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9584, 852, 1452

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9584, 852, 1452

Auto

18.6 20%

Teleop

33.4 35%

Endgame

43.0 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6305, 9470, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6305, 9470, 3045

Auto

65.0 18%

Teleop

206.5 58%

Endgame

83.9 24%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.7pts

Blue projected score363.7pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -254.9
Score range: 79–394
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.8Season APEX834.4

18.6Auto65

33.4Teleop206.5

43Endgame83.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	67
teleop	60	185
endgame	40	86
foul	0	0
total	119	338

Result

Final score

119 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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