Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.67 – 52.23

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

44 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.8 ±11.6

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 25.08Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 24.87Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 36.72Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.7 ±11.6

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 34.46Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 11Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 6.77Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 852, 1458, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 852, 1458, 3257

Auto

16.2 22%

Teleop

31.9 42%

Endgame

27.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4171, 10059, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4171, 10059, 7607

Auto

9.0 20%

Teleop

27.6 61%

Endgame

8.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.7pts

Blue projected score52.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.4
Score range: 18–121
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 66 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.8Season APEX179.7

16.2Auto9

31.9Teleop27.6

27.1Endgame8.9

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	10
teleop	13	10
endgame	26	2
foul	0	0
total	44	22

Result

Final score

44 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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