Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.58 – 188.16

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.2 ±10.5

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 32.19Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 46.41Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 47.98Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.7 ±11.1

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 7.69Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 36.1Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 144.37Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5924, 3598, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5924, 3598, 971

Auto

26.7 21%

Teleop

65.2 52%

Endgame

33.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5760, 4171, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5760, 4171, 604

Auto

41.6 23%

Teleop

93.0 51%

Endgame

48.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score188.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.6
Score range: 97–218
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.2Season APEX453.7

26.7Auto41.6

65.2Teleop93

33.6Endgame48.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	31
teleop	70	171
endgame	56	50
foul	15	0
total	157	252

Result

Final score

157 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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