Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.92 – 50.34

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.1 ±12.1

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX -11.72Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 7.49Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 21.15Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.9 ±11.6

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX -7.2Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX -0.01Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 57.55Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2473, 7413, 10252

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2473, 7413, 10252

Auto

2.0 16%

Teleop

6.9 54%

Endgame

3.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10059, 670, 1857

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10059, 670, 1857

Auto

16.1 38%

Teleop

24.7 59%

Endgame

1.3 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score16.9pts

Blue projected score50.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.4
Score range: -13–80
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 166.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.1Season APEX358.9

2Auto16.1

6.9Teleop24.7

3.9Endgame1.3

5Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	22
teleop	3	107
endgame	11	38
foul	0	0
total	23	167

Result

Final score

23 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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