Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

625.42 – 92.71

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

720 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 881.1 ±9.9

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 317.39Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 51.67Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 256.36Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.1 ±11

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 62.41Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 1.35Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 28.95Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1678, 9584, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

625.4 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1678, 9584, 9470

Auto

121.6 20%

Teleop

353.8 58%

Endgame

134.8 22%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7419, 7607, 852

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7419, 7607, 852

Auto

17.3 18%

Teleop

54.7 57%

Endgame

23.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.87 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score625.4pts

Blue projected score92.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 532.7
Score range: 64–654
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 843 vs event baseline 160.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

881.1Season APEX295.1

121.6Auto17.3

353.8Teleop54.7

134.8Endgame23.3

35Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	140	13
teleop	391	37
endgame	179	58
foul	10	15
total	720	123

Result

Final score

720 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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