Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.02 – 125.44

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461 ±11.7

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 62.92Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 11.67Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6981Clockwork Concord

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 4.43Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.4 ±11.6

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 40.77Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 58.1Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 26.57Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3045, 5760, 6981

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3045, 5760, 6981

Auto

9.5 12%

Teleop

44.3 57%

Endgame

23.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4171, 8793, 1458

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4171, 8793, 1458

Auto

16.2 14%

Teleop

69.5 59%

Endgame

31.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79pts

Blue projected score125.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.4
Score range: 50–154
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461Season APEX269.4

9.5Auto16.2

44.3Teleop69.5

23.7Endgame31.5

38Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	17
teleop	27	40
endgame	2	32
foul	5	10
total	39	99

Result

Final score

39 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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